Paul Ford

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Margin and Forecasts Protected

In agencies, commercial control isn’t a side task.

Scope, burn, margin, resourcing, SOWs, change control. If those aren’t managed, client confidence falls. Sloppiness looks like nobody is in charge.

Where I start

Write the estimate. Top-down and bottom-up checks. Assumptions written down. You can’t defend a number you can’t explain.

Map the resource reality. Capacity, utilisation, skills mix, contingency. No fantasy staffing.

Watch the hinge between scope and resourcing. What changed, what it impacts, and what it costs. If the commercial logic doesn’t match the team’s capacity, the programme begins to stall.

Run change control. Calm, documented, agreed. The point is to stop verbal scope becoming hidden burn.

Track the burn. Resource costs and margin are early warnings. Clients need clarity: here’s what’s true, here’s what’s changed, here’s the decision.

This is delivery hygiene. It stops programmes from rotting from the inside.

Evidence

Examples are anonymised to respect client confidentiality.

Project hemorrhaging money, no tracking in place
A mobile app build was overrunning with no visibility. The project was a disappearing pool of money.

We stopped the work to write a new line-by-line SOW. It was a difficult client conversation, but it traded a vague mess for a hard truth. Once the numbers had edges, the trust returned.

High-priority build, immovable deadline
I took over a project the PM agreed was out of control. It coincided with pre-booked TV slots and new packaging. Failure would have been devastating for the agency.

I switched to strict Agile. I block-booked five people and sat them together in one corner. Daily scrums with a prioritised backlog, MoSCoW to cut functionality

We got back on track. The PM took it back, clawed back the losses, and delivered on time with good margin.

One-year resource plan with no briefs
I built a twelve-month resourcing plan in December for the year ahead. There were no briefs yet, and I faced internal opposition.

Using past patterns and assumptions, the plan let us make permanent job offers and book freelancers early. I revised it quarterly so we were always planning nine to twelve months out.

I could see peaks and troughs months ahead. I made everyone pre-book summer and Christmas holidays in advance. It was a new way of working for the agency, and despite the resistance, it proved itself quickly.


If delivery looks fine but the commercials are unreliable, you’re one surprise away from escalation.